10 housing markets where prices have increased the most since their 2022 peak—and 10 down the most

Are you a housing investor? Do you own a long-term or short-term rental property? 🏠

If so, you’re invited to participate in the ResiClub-Groundfloor Housing Investor Survey.

The survey results will be published later this month in ResiClub—and in other mainstream publications.

To better understand how home prices have reacted since the mortgage rate shock, ResiClub has a cut in the Lance Lambert House Price Tracker called “shift since 2022 peak.” It reveals the extent of local home price changes since their peak in 2022, coinciding with the height of the Pandemic Housing Boom in most markets.

Among the 300 largest housing markets, home prices in these 10 metros are UP the most since their peak in 2022:

1. Trenton, NJ —> 13.3%

2. Hartford, CT —> 12.9% 

3. Atlantic City, NJ —> 12.8%

4. Rockford, IL —> 11.8% 

5. Savannah, GA —> 11.6%

6. New Haven, CT —> 11.4%

7. Syracuse, NY —> 11.4%

8. Vineland, NJ —> 10.9%

9. Norwich, CT —> 10.9%

10. Torrington, CT —> 10.7%

Among the 300 largest housing markets, home prices in these 10 metros are DOWN the most since their peak in 2022:

1. Austin, TX —> -18.7% 

2. New Orleans, LA —> -13.7%

3. Lake Charles, LA —> -11.7% 

4. Boise, ID —> -10.4%

5. Idaho Falls, ID —> -9.7%

6. Chico, CA —> -8.8%

7. San Francisco, CA —> -8.2% 

8. Provo, UT —> -8.0%

9. Punta Gorda, FL —> -7.8%

10. Phoenix, AZ —> -7.3%

 Click here to view an interactive version of the map below

National home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index are +1.3% above the 2022 peak as of April 2024. However, as the map shows above, there’s a great deal of variation across the county.

In Austin's market, demand has dropped harder than most markets, leading to a price correction. This bigger than average demand decline is due to pandemic-related migration inflating Austin home prices excessively. Once rates spiked, and pandemic migration slowed, those frothy prices simply put affordability too far beyond local Austin incomes. Moreover, Austin had a lot of new construction supply coming online over the past two years which made up for the pullback in new resale listings caused by the lock-in effect.

Meanwhile, Northeast markets like New Haven, where fundamentals are less distorted and there’s less supply coming online, the pullback in supply has outpaced the reduction in demand. This delicate equilibrium between supply and demand dynamics keeps prices, for now, on an upward trajectory in New Haven allowing sellers to maintain the upper hand in negotiations.

Big picture: U.S. home prices have been in a period of sideways movement following the 2022 mortgage rate shock. However, under the surface, some markets have seen home price corrections, while others have climbed higher.

On Tuesday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell will speak to reporters and announce the interest rate decision.

Most analysts think the Fed will leave rates unchanged this month.

Back in December 2023, Goldman Sachs' chief economist expected the first Fed rate cut to come in March 2024. Now, Goldman Sachs projects it will happen in September 2024.

We’ll see.

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