41 housing markets where homebuyers have gained power

You are invited to participate in the first-ever ResiClub Housing Sentiment Survey.

Anyone—from homeowners and renters to those who work in the housing sector or invest in rental properties—can take the survey.

While homebuyers and home sellers still see headlines about the housing market being a seller’s market and national home prices reaching all-time highs, a deeper look reveals that several regional housing markets have shifted, giving homebuyers some power.

During the Pandemic Housing Boom, from summer 2020 to spring 2022, the number of active homes for sale in most housing markets plummeted as homebuyer demand quickly absorbed almost everything that came up for sale. Fast-forward to the current housing market, and the places where active inventory has rebounded to 2019 levels are now the very places where homebuyers hold the most power.

While national active housing inventory for sale at the end of January 2025 was +24.6% higher than January 2024, it’s still -25.3% below January 2019 levels.

That said, more and more regional markets are surpassing that threshold 👇

Among the nation’s 200 largest metro area housing markets, 41 markets ended January 2025 with more active homes for sale than they had in pre-pandemic January 2019. These are the places where homebuyers will be able to find the most leverage or market balance in 2025.

Many of the softest housing markets, where homebuyers have gained leverage, are located in Gulf Coast and Mountain West regions. These areas were among the nation’s top pandemic boomtowns, having experienced significant home price growth during the Pandemic Housing Boom, which stretched housing fundamentals far beyond local income levels.

When pandemic-fueled migration slowed and mortgage rates spiked, markets like Punta Gorda, Florida, and Austin, Texas, faced challenges as they had to rely on local incomes to sustain frothy home prices. The housing market softening in these areas was further accelerated by the abundance of new home supply in the pipeline across the Sun Belt. Builders in these regions are often willing to reduce prices or make affordability adjustments to maintain sales. These adjustments in the new construction market also create a cooling effect on the resale market, as some buyers who might have opted for an existing home shift their focus to new homes where deals are still available.

In contrast, many Northeast and Midwest markets were less reliant on pandemic migration and have less new home construction in progress. With lower exposure to that migration slowdown demand shock, active inventory in these Midwest and Northeast regions has remained relatively tight, keeping the advantage in the hands of home sellers.

Generally speaking, housing markets where inventory (i.e., active listings) has returned to pre-pandemic levels have experienced weaker home price growth (or outright declines) over the past 30 months. Conversely, housing markets where inventory remains far below pre-pandemic levels have, generally speaking, experienced stronger home price growth over the past 30 months.

Existing home sales remain suppressed

Today, we learned that U.S. existing home sales are running at a seasonally adjusted rate of 4.08 million.

Meaning, if we maintain the current pace, and seasonality maintains its historical trajectory, we'd do 4.08 million national existing home sales over the next 12 months. That’s far below the 5.3 million pace that the U.S. housing market had in 2019.

The table below shows the NOT seasonally adjusted monthly readings for U.S. existing home sales. (Keep in mind the real-world runs a little ahead of the data world—many January sales were closed in November and December).

Institutional portfolio trading

Institutional landlord AMH's portfolio of single-family homes jumped in Q4 2024 from 58,899 homes to 60,531 homes, according to its earnings report published this week.

The reason for the BIG jump?

AMH acquired a bulk 1,673 home portfolio from hedge fund Man Group.

On a net basis, AMH's portfolio grew by +1,632 single-family homes. Without the bulk portfolio acquisition (1,673 homes), AMH would've been a net seller last quarter.

Big picture: This is still a very choppy time for big institutional homebuyers. Not much for sale meets the returns they'd want, and liquidity and other issues are driving more portfolio trading between institutional giants.

On Monday, February 24, we will hold this month’s one-hour monthly webinar for ResiClub PRO members at 3 p.m. ET (12 p.m. PT).

Our February ResiClub PRO Webinar will feature a presentation by the ResiClub team on the 9 long-term trends that will reshape housing.

ResiClub PRO members can find the calendar invite / zoom link here.