50 largest housing markets for single-family new construction, according to Zonda

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On Tuesday, Zonda published a report showcasing the 50 largest new-home markets.

“Texas and Florida have a commanding presence on this year’s list, accounting for one-third of the top 50 new-home markets” wrote researchers at Zonda.

Indeed, 13 of the 50 largest markets are in Florida alone, and 4 are in Texas—including Dallas (No. 1) and Houston (No. 2).

Click here for an interactive version of the map below

“Big trends for all the markets in [Texas] continue to be strong in-migration, healthy job growth—slowing but strongly positive—and a strong business climate,” wrote Zonda senior vice principal Bryan Glasshagel. “These are the long-term tailwinds for Texas. It will probably be one of the top, if not the top, population and household growth state in the nation for decades to come.”

Glasshagel noted that Austin, where home prices in the metro have fallen by around double digits since the 2022 peak, has experienced headwinds from “weakness in tech, significant price increases, and reduced affordability.” However, he still sees long-term growth opportunities there, pointing out that “seventy-nine companies announced expansions or moved to Austin in 2023, including big names like Tesla, Amazon, and Oracle.”

Homebuilders in Florida, like Texas, have benefited greatly from steady population growth.

Heading forward, over the short-term, Zonda chief economist Ali Wolf says they’re keeping an eye on housing markets across Texas and Florida, noting that “there is currently a downshift in the housing markets in Texas and Florida in 2024 as more inventories come online and consumers grapple with higher [housing] prices.”

Given the current housing affordability picture, Wolf thinks Midwest homebuilders could stand to benefit.

“I’m enthusiastic about the Midwest, especially Ohio and Indiana. While affordability has gone up in these markets relative to themselves, they still offer great value on the national stage with healthy local economies,” wrote Wolf. “Further, some markets in the Midwest have seen migration levels increase, but at a much more muted pace than a market like Austin. This has helped the markets grow at a more manageable pace.”

On Thursday, Invitation Homes—one of the nation's largest single-family landlords—reported that its home portfolio grew a little in Q2 2024.

In Q2 2024, Invitation Homes purchased 502 homes and sold 266 homes.

Invitation Homes has a total of 102,567 homes under management, including 84,445 wholly owned homes.

On Tuesday, we learned that U.S. home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, rose +0.9% between the April 2024 reading and the May 2024 reading.

National home prices are…

+50.3% since March 2020

+5.0% since the 2022 peak

+5.9% year-over-year (it was +6.3% YoY last month)

We’re at the tail end of the ‘strong’ seasonal reporting window for national home price appreciation, and we’ll soon begin to see data for the ‘softer’ seasonal reporting window. The real-world housing market, of course, has already made that seasonal transition, with some markets experiencing it more intensely than others.

ResiClub PRO members (paid tier) got these 3 additional research articles last week:

These 2 interactive maps show what's happening to days on market across the country

AMH's housing market bet: Why build-to-rent became their dominant growth engine

These 3 maps show where the resale housing market has weakened—and where it remains tight

Nothing in this newsletter is investment advice. Please do your own research.