Fitch: China's housing market undergoes price correction even as prices rise across most of the world

According to Fitch Ratings, home prices in 2024 rose in 13 of the 15 major countries analysts at the credit rating agency track, including a +4.0% jump in U.S. home prices.

The biggest home price increases were found in the Netherlands (+13.0%), Colombia (+10.0%), and Mexico (+9.3%), while France (-3.0%) and China (-7.8%) saw the only decreases.

What’s going on in China’s housing market?

After decades of a booming property market and rapid urbanization, China is experiencing a property bust. Unlike the U.S. housing market, where most analysts consider the market underbuilt, many analysts believe that China has a glut of supply driven by speculation, with many investors buying and owning empty units purely based on expectations of appreciation. As the Chinese government works to rein in the debt crisis in the property sector, it has tightened credit standards, which has the negative consequence of making it harder for Chinese homebuyers to obtain financing amidst the bust.

Will China home prices, which began falling in 2022, bottom out in 2025?

“The [Chinese] housing market is still in a precarious position, and much depends on the government’s follow through on support. Without intervention, Goldman Sachs Research estimates that property values may be at risk of falling by another 20% or 25%, which would drop them to about half of the peak in prices. But the government moves are positive nonetheless, and our researchers now estimate that [China] property prices may stabilize by late 2025,” wrote Goldman Sachs analysts in November.

Fitch Ratings is not as optimistic about China as Goldman Sachs.

While analysts at Fitch Ratings expect U.S. home prices to rise by +2.0% to +4.0% in 2025, they expect Chinese home prices to fall by another -4.0% to -6.0% in 2025, according to Fitch Ratings’ final 2025 home price forecast just published 👇

According to Fitch Ratings' preliminary 2026 forecast just published, the group expects U.S. home prices to increase by +3.0% to +5.0% in 2026, while China remains in correction mode, with China home prices expected to fall by -2.0% to -4.0% in 2026 👇

Want to check out more 2025 and 2026 home price forecasts?

On Monday, ResiClub PRO members got our final roundup of 2025 U.S. home price forecasts. In total, 26 firms participated.

Earlier this month, sale-leaseback platform EasyKnock—which was one of the nation's 10 largest homebuyers in 2023—announced they are winding down their operations.

According to SFR Analytics, EasyKnock’s recent median purchase price is $245,000, and average square footage is 1,648.

EasyKnock—which was founded in 2016 and had raised over $400M in equity and debt—had a lot of legal trouble, including lawsuits in multiple states: Texas, Maryland, South Carolina, Pennsylvania, and Ohio. While also facing regulatory actions in Massachusetts, Michigan, and Connecticut.

Not to mention, the Federal Trade Commission published a consumer alert in October highlighting the risks posed to consumers by sale-leaseback programs.

On Tuesday, the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index reported that U.S. home prices fell -0.2% between the September 2024 reading and the October 2024 reading.

Year-over-year: +3.6% 

Since the 2022 peak: +5.2%

Since March 2020: +50.7%