Home prices are up year-over-year in 38 of the nation's 50 largest housing markets

Among the nation's 50 largest U.S. housing markets, 38 markets have experienced year-over-year increases in existing home prices, while 12 markets have seen year-over-year declines. That’s according to the November reading of the Zillow Home Value Index, published this week.

When considering the Fed’s aggressive rate hikes and the fact that mortgage rates briefly crossed 8% this fall, U.S. home prices were fairly resilient this year.

The simplified explanation for why home prices increased in most markets this year boils down to the fact that resale inventory remained tight in most markets, distressed selling didn’t materialize, and the labor market held firm.

But there has been, and continues to be, a great deal of home price bifurcation still occurring across the country. (To understand why, read this piece).

On a year-over-year basis, Hartford is up +11.3% and Milwaukee is up +8.6%. Meanwhile, Austin is down -8.2% and New Orleans is down -9.0%.

On a national level, U.S. home prices as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index are up +3.8% year to date after factoring in the -0.4% decline in November. It’ll finish positive for 2023 once the final reading comes in for December.

The chart above shows that we’re passing through the seasonally soft window for U.S. home price growth reporting. Over the coming months, it’ll drift into the stronger seasonal window for U.S. home price growth reporting.

This weekend, ResiClub PRO members (premium) will receive a deep dive into county-level house prices. The Lance Lambert House Price Tracker will also be updated for ResiClub PRO members to include the latest pricing data for over 800 metros and more than 3,000 counties (including all the data points found in the first chart in today’s article).

On Thursday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate slipped to 6.82%. That’s the lowest reading since mid-May, and far below the 23-year high hit in October of 8.03%. To understand what’s going on, read yesterday’s ResiClub piece.

Over the coming weeks, ResiClub will track how regional housing markets respond to this affordability improvement.