Homebuilders haven’t seen much disruption from deportations yet, John Burns finds

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During his campaign, Donald Trump vowed to implement mass deportations. Since regaining power, he has signed multiple executive orders aimed at tightening border security and increasing arrests by Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) officers.

In theory, an increase in deportations—let alone “mass deportations”—could impact U.S. homebuilders and their network of subcontractors.

While we don’t exactly know how many undocumented immigrants work in construction, we know it’s a chunk. In 2016, Pew Research Center estimated that 13% of the U.S. construction workforce is undocumented. In 2021, the Center for American Progress estimated that 23% of construction laborers are undocumented (see their full breakdown below).

This month, analysts at John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC) set out to find out if homebuilders are seeing an impact yet from deportations and arrests.

So far, there hasn’t been a big impact: Only 11% of homebuilders in the JBREC survey said that recent deportations and/or changes in immigration policy have impacted their labor force.

What are the major publicly traded homebuilders saying publicly?

This week, Rick Palacios, director of research at JBREC, posted a roundup of recent comments made on earnings calls regarding deportations 👇

Century Communities, Inc. – 4Q24 Earnings Call (January 29, 2025):

“Regarding ICE raids and deportations… This is still early on unfolding. We have not seen anything on the ground or in our cost structure that needs us to react in a certain way. It’s just wait and see. But right now, we're not seeing anything that is negative to the business.”

Beazer – 1Q25 Earnings Call (January 30, 2025):

“Regarding impact of deportations and immigration issues… Honestly, have not seen an impact. And we check in regularly. We've got a hotline set up internally to sort of anything, and I have not heard any news on that. I won't be surprised if there is some in markets that we do business and in the industry. But so far, I have not heard of any.”

PulteGroup, Inc.– 4Q24 Earnings Call (January 30, 2025):

“Regarding impact of immigration enforcement… It's been a long-standing policy of our company trade partners and the labor that are on our job sites, we require verified residency status and/or work permits that allow them to work legally in the U.S. That's been our position for a long time, it will continue to be our position. In terms of impacts to the broader labor force, even beyond just construction labor to the extent that there are deportation activities there's no question there'll be less labor available and that will have an impact on all wage rates and we'll certainly have to deal with that as that becomes more clear.”

Taylor Morrison Home Corporation – 4Q24 Earnings Call (February 12, 2025):

“Regarding potential impact of immigration… we’re happy to report that we haven't seen anything hit the job site. Certainly, we've got protocols in place. Even though we've seen activity within markets, we have not seen anything hit our job sites. Coming into the year, we had a little bit of fear that we would see some absenteeism of folks. To date, I'd say there's been no disruptions.”

Tri Pointe Homes, Inc. – 4Q24 Earnings Call (February 18, 2025):

“Regarding the impact of ICE raids or deportations… No impacts at all. Typically, our trades have maintained the necessary requirements as far as making sure they're legal citizens. Our trades have employees and teammates that have been with them for quite a while. We’re not expecting any labor issues this year, to be honest with you.”

Toll Brothers, Inc. – 1Q25 Earnings Call (February 19, 2025)

“We have not seen any immediate supply chain impacts from tariffs or labor shortages due to changes in immigration policies, although we are monitoring developments closely and will pivot as necessary to deal with any issues that arise.”

Heading forward, we’ll keep an eye on this story. If things shift here, we’ll cover it.

Here are the updated quarterly mortgage rate forecasts by the Mortgage Bankers Association, Fannie Mae, and Wells Fargo 👇 

National home prices have risen by +2.6% year-over-year from January 2024 to January 2025, according to the Zillow Home Value Index, a slightly decelerated rate from the +4.6% year-over-year rate last spring. However, not every housing market is seeing rising home prices.

Among the 300 largest metro area housing markets, 31 markets are seeing falling home prices on a year-over-year basis. While home prices continue to rise in regions with tight inventory—such as much of the Northeast, Midwest, and Southern California—some housing markets in states like Texas, Florida, and Louisiana, where inventory has now surpassed pre-pandemic 2019 levels, are experiencing modest price corrections.

These year-over-year declines are evident in major metros such as Austin (-3.4%); Tampa (-2.8%); San Antonio (-1.8%); New Orleans (-1.1%); Jacksonville, Florida (-0.9%); Phoenix (-0.8%); Dallas (-0.7%); and Orlando (-0.6%).

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