Homebuilders unsold completed inventory reaches the highest level since 2009—here's the context

If you upgrade to ResiClub PRO at full price within the next 24 hours, you can schedule a 30-minute call with me to talk about housing. I'm happy to share my thoughts on your local housing market, explain my views and what I’m hearing across the sector, or learn more about your business.

To claim the offer, upgrade and then email me some slots you’re free over the next three weeks (lance@resiclubanalytics.com).

Since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out, the number of unsold completed U.S. new single-family homes has been rising👇

January 2018 —> 63,000

January 2019 —> 76,000

January 2020 —> 76,000

January 2021 —> 40,000

January 2022 —> 32,000

January 2023 —> 68,000

January 2024 —> 83,000

January 2025 —> 115,000

The January figure (115,000 unsold completed new homes) published today is the highest level since July 2009 (126,000).

Let’s take a closer look at the data to better understand what this could mean.

To put the number of unsold completed new single-family homes into historic context, we created a new index: ResiClub’s Finished Homes Supply Index.

The index is one simple calculation: The number of unsold completed U.S. new single-family homes divided by the annualized rate of U.S. single-family housing starts.

A higher index score indicates a softer national new construction market with greater supply slack, while a lower index score signifies a tighter new construction market with less supply slack.

Big picture: The index shows that there’s more new construction slack in the 2025 housing market as compared to the 2023 and 2024 markets; however, it’s still far less slack than the GFC bust.

In housing markets and builder communities where unsold completed inventory gets too high, local homebuilders could (and some already have) turn to get bigger affordability adjustments (i.e., bigger incentives or even outright price cuts).

That raises the question: Where is this unsold new home inventory located? Where can buyers find deals?

While the U.S. Census Bureau doesn’t specify the local locations of unsold completed single-family new construction, it’s safe to assume that most of it is in the South, based on where total active housing inventory for sale is increasing and where homebuilders are completing the most homes (see chart below).

As I’ve been documenting closely for our ResiClub PRO members, both active resale and new homes for sale remain the most limited across huge swaths of the Midwest, Northeast, and Southern California. That’s likely where you’ll find the least unsold completed new construction—and where builders have greater pricing power.

Reversely, active housing inventory for sale has grown the most in the Gulf region. Housing markets like Tampa, Punta Gorda, and San Antonio. These areas saw major price surges during the Pandemic Housing Boom, with home price growth outpacing local income levels. As pandemic-driven migration slowed and mortgage rates rose, markets like Tampa and Austin faced challenges, relying on local income levels to support frothy home prices. This softening trend is further compounded by an abundance of new home supply in the Sun Belt. Builders are often willing to lower prices or offer affordability incentives to maintain sales, which also has a cooling effect on the resale market. Some buyers, who would have previously considered existing homes, are now opting for new homes with more favorable deals.

"The number of builders’ unsold inventory homes remains above the seasonal norm. We’ve been tracking this trend for a while as builders rely on speculative starts to capture buyers. However, some builders are facing pricing pressure—especially in key Florida and Texas markets, where resale supply is also well above pre-COVID norms,” wrote Dillan Krieg, a research analyst at John Burns Research and Consulting today.

ResiClub PRO members got these 3 additional research articles over the past week:

This housing market map shows how much county-level home insurance premiums are forecasted to rise by 2055

The income needed to purchase a typical U.S. home has increased by 79% in just 5 years

Did Warren Buffett see this coming? Homebuilder margins face pressure in 2025

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate today: 6.78% 

Same day last year: 7.13% 

10-year Treasury yield today: 4.26% 

“The spread” today: 252 bps