Homebuilder unsold inventory hits 15-year high: Housing markets to find deals in

Become your local housing authority: How to use ResiClub PRO to build a kick-butt local housing market newsletter

On Monday, April 14th, we will hold a special webinar for ResiClub PRO members at 3 p.m. ET showing members how to build a local housing newsletter.

This particular webinar is perfect for housing stakeholders (builders, investors, real estate agents, etc.) who’d like to create a locally focused housing market newsletter. We’ll show you…

1. How to get a website domain for your newsletter

2. Where to host your newsletter (free up to 2,500 subscribers)

3. How to build your email list

4. How to insert ResiClub charts and maps into your newsletter

5. Tips on story formatting, story structure, and reading housing data

6. What ResiClub PRO charts and maps would be great for your localized newsletter

Homebuilder completed unsold inventory hits 15-year high—here’s what it means for the 2025 housing market

Speaking to investors last week, Lennar co-CEO Jon Jaffe said that the spring 2025 selling season for America’s second-largest homebuilder is off to a slow start.

“We do not see the seasonal pickup typically associated with the beginning of the spring selling season. So we continue to lean into our machine focusing on converting leads and appointments and adjusting incentives as needed to maintain sales pace. These adjustments came in the form of mortgage rate buydowns, price reductions, and closing cost assistance,” Jaffe said.

Last quarter, Lennar offered buyer incentives on its typical sale totaling 13% of the home's sale price—up from just 1.5% in Q2 2022 during the peak of the Pandemic Housing Boom. On a $400,000 home, that 13% incentive amounts to $52,000.

This weaker housing demand environment is causing unsold completed inventory—in particular in the Sun Belt—to tick up. Indeed, since the Pandemic Housing Boom fizzled out, the number of unsold completed U.S. new single-family homes has been rising:

February 2018 —> 63,000

February 2019 —> 75,000

February 2020 —> 77,000

February 2021 —> 39,000

February 2022 —> 31,000

February 2023 —> 70,000

February 2024 —> 88,000

February 2025 —> 119,000

The February figure (119,000 unsold completed new homes) published this week is the highest level since July 2009 (126,000).

To put the number of unsold completed new single-family homes into historic context, we have ResiClub’s Finished Homes Supply Index.

The index is one simple calculation: The number of unsold completed U.S. new single-family homes divided by the annualized rate of U.S. single-family housing starts.

A higher index score indicates a softer national new construction market with greater supply slack, while a lower index score signifies a tighter new construction market with less supply slack.

If you look at unsold completed single-family new builds as a share of single-family housing starts (see chart below), it still shows we've gained slack; however, it puts us closer to pre-pandemic 2019 levels than the GFC bust. That said, if new construction or the economy hit a big speed bump and housing starts dropped by 20% to 30%, this ratio would spike quickly—even if unsold builds didn’t increase much.

While the U.S. Census Bureau doesn't give us a greater market-by-market breakdown on these unsold new builds, we have a good idea where they are based on where total active inventory for sale (including existing homes) has spiked above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. Most of those areas are in the Sun Belt around the Gulf.

Some builders are currently feeling downward pricing pressures in pockets of the Mountain West and Gulf regions—especially in pandemic boomtowns in Florida and Texas, where resale inventory has risen above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

Big picture: What does this mean?

Homebuyers/investors: The new construction market has more slack now than it did a few years ago, giving buyers in certain areas more leverage to negotiate better deals with homebuilders.

Home sellers: For sellers in markets where unsold new home inventory has surged, that means increased competition and it’ll likely put additional upward pressure on resale active inventory.

Real estate agents: Given the shifted market and increase in unsold inventory, it means homebuilders in some markets will need to rely even more on agents to bring them buyers.

Homebuilders: In markets where unsold completed new-build inventory has increased and active listings have risen, builders will likely face greater profit margin compression as they spend more on price cuts or incentives to attract affordability-strained homebuyers.

The green markets below—meaning they have inventory levels above pre-pandemic 2019—are the major markets where buyers have gained more power and can likely find more unsold builder inventory.

Click here view an interactive version of the chart below

Florida, in particular, has seen much greater total inventory growth (including resale inventory).

The green Florida markets below—meaning they have inventory levels above pre-pandemic 2019—are the major Florida markets where buyers have gained more power and can find more unsold builder inventory.

Click here view an interactive version of the chart below

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