Housing market map: Zillow downgrades its 2025 home price forecast

On Tuesday, Zillow economists published their updated forecast model, projecting that U.S. home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, will rise +0.8% between February 2025 and February 2026. That’s another downward revision. Last month, their 12-month forecast projected a +1.1% increase in U.S. home prices, and the month before that, they expected a +2.9% increase.

“The rise in [active] listings is fueling softer price growth, as greater supply provides more options and more bargaining power for buyers,” wrote Zillow economists on Tuesday. “Potential buyers are opting to remain renters for longer as affordability challenges suppress demand for home purchases” 

Not only do Zillow economists predict soft national home price growth this year, but they’re also predicting that the housing market will only see 4.1 million U.S. existing home sales in 2025. That would mark the third straight year of suppressed existing home sales. For comparison, in pre-pandemic 2019, there were 5.3 million U.S. existing home sales.

Zillow economists added that: “As the home-buying season nears, Zillow anticipates a temporary boost in sales during the spring, followed by a seasonal slowdown. However, with little relief expected from mortgage rates, existing home sales are likely to remain below pre-pandemic levels. Until mortgage rates fall—to improve housing affordability—some downward pressure on [existing] home sales is expected to persist.”

Click here to view an interactive version of the forecast map below

Among the 300 largest U.S. housing markets, Zillow expects the strongest home price appreciation between February 2025 and February 2026 to occur in these 10 metros.

1. Atlantic City, NJ → +5.1% 

2. Knoxville, TN → +4.7%

3. Kingston, NY → +4.7%

4. Torrington, CT → +4.6%

5.  Bangor, ME → +4.6% 

6. Rochester, NY → +4.4% 

7. Vineland, NJ → +4.4%

8. Concord, NH → +4.2% 

9. Norwich, CT → +4.1% 

10. Fayetteville, AR → +3.9%

Among the 300 largest U.S. housing markets, Zillow expects the weakest home price appreciation between February 2025 and February 2026 to occur in these 10 metros.

1. Houma, LA → -7.3%

2.  Lake Charles, LA →  -7.0%

3. New Orleans, LA → -5.5% 

4. Lafayette, LA → -4.6%

5.  Shreveport, LA → -4.4%

6. Odessa, TX → -4.1% 

7. Beaumont, TX → -3.7% 

8. Alexandria, LA  → -3.3%

9. Chico, CA → -3.0% 

10. Midland, TX → -3.0%

While Zillow expects home prices across most of Florida to rise over the coming year, ResiClub remains skeptical. After all, Florida has experienced a significant increase in active inventory and months of supply over the past year, which could signal potential pricing weakness. Indeed, single-family and condo prices are currently declining in most Florida housing markets.

Below is a look at what metro area home prices, as measured by the Zillow Home Value Index, have done over the past 12 months. Nationally, U.S. home prices are up +2.1% between February 2024 and February 2025.

LEFT MAP BELOW: Per capita net domestic migration during the Pandemic Housing Boom between July 2020 and July 2021

RIGHT MAP BELOW: Per capita net domestic migration between July 2023 and July 2024

This morning, we got updated housing permit data 👇