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Housing markets where homes sell the most above list—and the most below list

To identify which markets might offer buyers the most luck right now, ResiClub analyzed the sale-to-list ratio calculated by Zillow.

Author

Lance Lambert
September 11, 2024

6.11% —> Today’s average 30-year fixed mortgage rate as calculated by Mortgage News Daily.

That’s the lowest mortgage rate average by Mortgage News Daily since February 2, 2023.

Range this year: 6.11% (lowest reading) ←→ 7.52% (highest reading).

245 bps —> Today’s spread between the 10-year Treasury yield and the 30-year fixed mortgage rate.

The rate borrowers may qualify for (if eligible) can vary greatly from the daily average published by Mortgage News Daily. Many factors, including credit score, can affect this. ResiClub uses this “average” as a proxy for how the mortgage market is shifting—and how quickly.

For the past few weeks, the U.S. housing market has been passing through the seasonally soft window of the year. This period outside of the spring season, is usually when regional markets passing through home prices corrections will see the most price give up.

To identify which metro area markets might offer buyers the most luck or power right now, ResiClub analyzed the June 2024 sale-to-list ratio calculated by Zillow and released late last month.

A sale-to-list ratio above 1.0 means the typical home in that metro sold for more than the list price, while a ratio below 1.0 means the typical home sold for less than the list price.

Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 markets had the HIGHEST sale-to-list ratio:

  1. Rochester, NY —> 1.19

  2. Buffalo, NY —> 1.08

  3. San Jose, CA —> 1.07

  4. Syracuse, NY —> 1.06

  5. Hartford, CT —> 1.06

  6. Trenton, NJ —> 1.05

  7. San Francisco, CA —> 1.05

  8. Bridgeport, CT —> 1.04

  9. Manchester, NH —> 1.04

  10. Madison, WI —> 1.04

Among the 250 largest metro area housing markets, these 10 markets had the LOWEST sale-to-list ratio:

  1. Naples, FL —> 0.95

  2. Cape Coral, FL —> 0.95

  3. Punta Gorda, FL —> 0.95

  4. Panama City, FL —> 0.95

  5. Macon, GA —> 0.96

  6. North Port, FL —> 0.96

  7. Jackson, TN —> 0.96 

  8. Bowling Green, KY —> 0.96

  9. Miami, FL —> 0.96

  10. Port St. Lucie, FL —> 0.96

So in other words, in Buffalo, NY, the typical home is selling for +8% above its list price on average, while in Naples, FL, the typical home is selling for -5% below its list price.

Click here for an interactive version of the map below

As ResiClub has well documented, many housing markets in the Northeast, Midwest, the Bay Area, and Southern California have been stronger and tighter this year, while many areas in the Sun Belt, particularly resale markets around the Gulf, have been softer/weaker.

Unlike many Sun Belt housing markets, many Northeast and Midwest markets have lower levels of homebuilding. As new supply becomes available in Southwest and Southeast markets, and builders use affordability adjustments like buydowns to move it, it has created an additional cooling effect in the resale market. The Northeast and Midwest don’t have that same level of new supply, so resale/existing homes are pretty much the only game in town.

Another factor driving the bifurcation is that some pockets of the Sun Belt and Mountain West experienced even greater home price growth during the Pandemic Housing Boom, which stretched fundamentals too far beyond local incomes. Once pandemic-fueled migration slowed, and rates spiked, it became an issue in places like Austin and Naples.

Over the past week, ResiClub PRO members (paid tier) got these three additional research articles: