These housing markets will see the most apartment completions through 2029, according to Yardi's updated forecast

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This month, Yardi Matrix updated its multifamily unit forecast, laying out predictions for apartment completions in more than 100 U.S. markets from 2024 to 2029. The firm’s new forecast echos findings outlined earlier this year.

“A gradual slowdown in multifamily development activity is taking hold. A still sizable under-construction pipeline will support a high level of completions in 2024 and 2025, with new supply bottoming in 2026,” Yardi Matrix analysts wrote earlier this year. 

During the Pandemic Housing Boom, low interest rates/easy access to capital inspired investors to initiate a lot of multifamily development, especially in burgeoning markets in the Sun Belt. These projects are now finishing, or close to being completed, hence the surge in apartment supply in 2023 and 2024. Yardi Matrix forecasts new unit completions to peak this year, with more than 550,000 units hitting the market. 

However, since rates have been higher, financing for new multifamily development has decelerated. In Q4 2023, Yardi Matrix construction start data was 12.5% below the same period in 2022. Therefore, new apartment unit completion numbers are expected to decelerate and bottom out in 2026, when only about 385,000 unit completions are forecasted, according to Yardi Matrix. 

The Sun Belt will continue to be the epicenter of new multifamily development.

Austin leads U.S. markets in the most apartment units headed to market, with 98,842 units expected to be completed through 2029. Phoenix (91,852) is next, followed by Denver (76,846), Charlotte (74,791), North Dallas (70,146), West Houston (69,417), Orlando (65,476), Nashville (59,504), and Miami (58,658).  

Click here to view a searchable chart showing the data below for 120 major housing markets

On Monday, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate jumped to 7.44%. That’s the highest reading from Mortgage News Daily this year.

Over the weekend ResiClub PRO members got this research article:

The housing markets that have been the hardest—and least—hit by the lock-in effect

Tomorrow, ResiClub PRO members will get an updated report on home prices for over 800 metros and 3,000 counties.