With national home listings climbing, buyers in most markets gain access to more inventory

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In December, we published a data-packed article for ResiClub PRO members, where we asserted: "The latest data suggests that the peak lock-in effect is behind us."

While the lock-in effect—which has suppressed new listings* since the mortgage rate shock in summer 2022—is still at play, it’s indeed easing up.

This week, we learned that national new listings as tracked by Realtor.com are now up +14.9% on a year-over-year basis.

Big picture for new listings: The lock-in effect is easing a little as the initial mortgage rate shock recedes in the rearview mirror, and as some homeowners come to terms with the fact that their life circumstances have changed and that sub 4% mortgage rates aren’t returning anytime soon.

Click here to view an interactive version of the chart below

Switching gears to active listings**—the total number of units for sale—we’re also seeing a lift. As of this week, national active listings as tracked by Realtor.com are up +25.5% (you can find state-level year-over-year figures here).

The uptick in active listings could suggest that the national housing market, albeit varying by market, has softened a bit further and continues to normalize as mortgage rates have remained around 7.00% for longer than anticipated.

In ResiClub’s view, active listings serve as a pulse of supply and demand in a given market. Generally speaking, housing markets where inventory (i.e. active listings) has returned to pre-pandemic levels have experienced weaker home price growth (or outright declines) over the past 20 months. Conversely, housing markets where inventory remains far below pre-pandemic levels have, generally speaking, experienced stronger home price growth over the past 20 months.

ResiClub PRO members have access to metro and county-level figures for active listings and new listings through the Lance Lambert Inventory Tracker. Additionally, PRO members receive periodic ZIP code-level analysis.

* New listings = “The count of new listings added to the market within the specified geography. The new listing count represents a typical week’s worth of new listings in a given month. The new listing count can be multiplied by the number of weeks in a month to produce a monthly new listing count” according to Realtor.com.

** Active listings (i.e. what I often call “inventory”) = “The count of active listings within the specified geography during the specified month. The active listing count tracks the number of for sale properties on the market, excluding pending listings where a pending status is available. This is a snapshot measure of how many active listings can be expected on any given day of the specified month” according to Realtor.com.