National home price growth this decade has already surpassed that of the entire 1990s and 2010s

On Tuesday, we learned that U.S. home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, rose +0.6% between the January 2024 reading and February 2024 reading.

Despite mortgage rates hovering around 7% and national active listings on the rise, national home price growth this spring is slightly warmer than normal seasonality.

On a year-over-year basis, U.S. home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, are up +6.4% between February 2023 and February 2024.

That jump, which came after a brief price correction in the second half of 2022, puts U.S. home prices +1.3% above the 2022 price peak.

While mortgage rates haven’t translated into a meaningful national home price correction, it has coincided with a deceleration in national home price growth, which had reached unsustainable levels during the Pandemic Housing Boom.

U.S. home price growth:

Past 20-month window (June 2022 to Feb. 2024): +1.3% 

Prior 20-month window (Oct. 2020 to June 2022): +34.1% 

If you're wondering how U.S. home prices could have risen by only +1.3% over the past 20 months despite a +6.4% year-over-year increase, it's because U.S. home prices briefly entered a correction phase, experiencing a decline of -5.0% between June 2022 and January 2023 as the housing market, in particular Western housing markets, adjusted to the 2022 rate shock. However, those national declines were swiftly recovered in 2023.

Click here to view an interactive version of the chart below

Through the first 50 months of the 2020s decade, U.S. home prices have risen by +47.1%. This already surpasses the total national appreciation witnessed throughout both the 1990s and 2010s decades.

U.S. home price growth by decade

+30.1% - ‘90s decade

+47.3% - ‘00s decade

+44.7% - ‘10s decade

+47.1% - ‘20s decade

One thing that is unique about the current decade is that we've seen a greater level of overall price inflation compared to the same point in the previous three decades.