Net domestic migration: Which states are gaining—and losing—Americans

This month, the U.S. Census Bureau published their net domestic migration figures for 2024.

Keep in mind that this metric (net domestic migration) is NOT total population change. It doesn’t include births/deaths nor international migration.

Instead, net domestic migration is calculated as the difference between the number of Americans moving into a given state (in-migration) and the number of people leaving that state (out-migration) over a specific period.

These 5 states saw the biggest net domestic migration INCREASE between July 2023 and July 2024:

1. Texas —> +85,267

2. North Carolina —> +82,288

3. South Carolina —> +68,043 

4. Florida —> +64,017 

5. Tennessee —> +48,476

These 5 states saw the biggest net domestic migration DECREASE between July 2023 and July 2024:

1. California —> -239,575 

2. New York —> -120,917 

3. Illinois —> -56,235

4. New Jersey —> -35,554 

5. Massachusetts —> -27,480

While Sun Belt states like Texas and Florida continue to see positive net migration, it’s FAR less unbound migration than those states saw during the height of the Pandemic Housing Boom.

Indeed, Florida saw net domestic migration of +64K in 2024, compared to +314K in 2022, while Texas saw net domestic migration of +85K in 2024, compared to +222K in 2022.

To better illustrate the recent deceleration of domestic migration to Texas and Florida in the Sun Belt and how domestic migration patterns are shifting, ResiClub created maps of net migration from prior years. Keep in mind that the data published by the Census allows us to calculate shifts from July to July (e.g., July 2023 to July 2024) rather than exact calendar year net domestic migration.

Click here to view an interactive of the 2024 map below

Click here to view an interactive of the 2023 migration map below

Click here to view an interactive of the 2022 migration map below

Click here to view an interactive of the 2021 migration map below

Click here to view an interactive of the 2020 migration map below

Click here to view an interactive of the 2019 migration map below

Migration shifts—and changes in the pace of migration—matter for the housing market, as they can shift the local supply-demand equilibrium.

Many of the softest housing markets, where homebuyers have gained leverage, are located in Sun Belt regions of the Gulf Coast and Mountain West. These areas were home to many of the nation’s top pandemic boomtowns, which experienced significant home price growth during the pandemic housing boom, which stretched housing affordability far beyond local income levels. Once offices reopened and mortgage rates spiked, pandemic-fueled migration quickly slowed in many parts of Texas and Florida.

Once that happened, markets like Punta Gorda, Florida and Austin, Texas faced challenges as they had to rely more on local incomes to sustain frothy home prices.

The housing market softening in these pandemic boomtown areas was further accelerated by the abundance of new home supply in the pipeline across the Sun Belt. Builders in these regions are often willing to reduce prices or make affordability adjustments to maintain sales. These adjustments in the new construction market also create a cooling effect on the resale market, as some buyers who might have opted for an existing home shift their focus to new homes where deals are still available.

The maps above show net domestic migration WITHOUT taking into context how big or small that shift is relative to the state’s population.

So to give another perspective on the data, we calculated net domestic migration shown as a ratio per 1,000 residents for 2024, 2022, and 2019.

This calculation shows that South Carolina is experiencing the largest influx of net domestic migration relative to its current population. For every 1,000 residents in South Carolina, the state added a net total of 12 new residents from other states.

Here’s the per capita shift in 2024 👇

Here’s the per capita shift in 2022 👇

Here’s the per capita shift in 2019 👇