Springtime blossoms: Housing market gears up for increased listings

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Today, ResiClub hosted a webinar to discuss our view on the current state of the U.S. housing market. To support our analysis, we presented over 48 charts.

You can watch the webinar recording here.

Despite having upgraded to a corporate Zoom account, we were still limited in capacity. We apologize to anyone who attempted to attend the live sessions but couldn't join us.

Like clockwork every year, the number of new listings hitting the national housing market rises consistently every month from January to June.

That’s the seasonal window when buyers can find the most new selection on the market. Even last year—a market where new listings were suppressed by a mortgage rate shock induced lock-in effect—new listings still saw a mild seasonal uptick.

2017: New listings rose +39% between January and June

2018: New listings rose +43% between January and June

2019: New listings rose +40% between January and June

2020: New listings rose +31% between January and June

2021: New listings rose +51% between January and June

2022: New listings rose +65% between January and June

2023: New listings rose +38% between January and June

Click here to view an interactive version of the chart below

While the first half of the year usually brings an increase in new listings, the increased supply also often comes with heightened seasonal competition, as individuals and families vie for their dream homes.

Why does seasonal competition often increase alongside more new listings?

One factor is the return of many would-be homebuyers who, having not found a suitable property in the previous year, resume their search as the holidays conclude and new listings start to appear. The post-holiday period often sees a resurgence in homebuyer activity, with individuals and families rejoining the hunt for their ideal residence. Keep in mind that many home sellers also turn around and buy another home. So new listings can bring with it supply and demand.

Big picture: While new listings in 2024 are likely to still remain below pre-pandemic levels, as high “switching costs” remain a burden for many would-be sellers, we are moving into the seasonal window where the number of new listings hitting the market experiences an upswing. And this year, we should see more new listings than in 2023.

On Thursday, we learned that American Homes 4 Rent, an institutional landlord, netted 240 homes in Q4 2023. American Homes 4 Rent bought 481 homes last quarter while selling 241 homes.

In total, American Homes 4 Rent ended Q4 owning 59,332 U.S. single-family homes—up from 59,092 in Q3. Its biggest markets are Atlanta (4,643 homes), Dallas-Fort Worth (3,748 homes), Charlotte (3,612 homes), Phoenix (2,731 homes), and Nashville (2,749 homes).

Following a few quarters of net selling, American Homes 4 Rent has been a "net buyer" for three straight quarters while Invitation Homes, which reported earlier this month [see chart below], has been a "net buyer" over the last two quarters.