The highest mortgage rate U.S. homeowners say they'd accept on their next home purchase

Today’s letter is brought to you by ApprovalsArchive!

ResiClub has a new data partnership with Epum, a real estate research lab which is focused on tracking commercial real estate projects—including single-family rental and built-to-rent—in planning or under construction nationwide.

Their ApprovalsArchive platform is the definitive resource for tracking, visualizing, and analyzing parcel-level site plan approvals, rezonings, and special exceptions for new housing or other CRE projects in planning.

All ResiClub readers are welcome to use the ResiClub discount code (ResiClub22025), to receive 10% off when subscribing to ApprovalsArchive.

You can watch ApprovalsArchive’s product demo here.

In total, 650 U.S. adults participated in the ResiClub Housing Sentiment Survey between February 21 and March 4, 2025.

We asked U.S. homeowners—excluding those who said they "plan to never sell" or "would pay all cash" for their next home—what the highest mortgage rate they would accept on their next home purchase.

• Only 16% of homeowners said they’d accept a mortgage rate up to 7.00% on their next purchase.

• Just over half of homeowners (54%) said they’d accept a mortgage rate up to 5.50% on their next purchase.

Our biggest regret with this survey question is that we didn’t start conducting it quarterly or semiannually back in 2022. Our guess is that, over time, as mortgage rates have remained higher for longer than consumers expected, the mortgage rate that potential homeowners—who are selling to buy—are willing to accept have been rising. Some homeowners are realizing that sub-4.00% mortgage rates aren’t coming back anytime soon. And as they experience more lifestyle changes (like having more kids) and see increases in their incomes, their personal “switching costs” are shifting. Some are beginning to recognize that they’ll need to make a move at some point.

That said… homeowners aren’t going to sell and buy something new if they can’t qualify for or afford their next mortgage at current rates. And many homeowners who have the itch to move have come to realize they fall into that camp.

That raises the question: Where do U.S. consumers think the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate will finish 2025?

• 4% of U.S. adults said 7.5%

• 9% of U.S. adults said 7.0% to 7.5%

• 34% of U.S. adults said 6.5% to 7.0%

• 39% of U.S. adults said 6.0% to 6.5%

• 10% of U.S. adults said 5.5% to 6.0%

• 3% of U.S. adults said 5.0% to 5.5%

• 2% of U.S. adults said under 5.0%

Note: Responses are rounded to whole numbers.

Tomorrow, we’ll email you A LOT more responses from the ResiClub Housing Sentiment Survey.

We plan to conduct this particular survey on a recurring basis. Companies interested in co-branding it with us should email: [email protected].

Earlier this week, ResiClub PRO members got access to our latest housing inventory analysis for +800 metros and +3,000 counties.

Essex County, NJ, has a very TIGHT housing market. Sellers have significant power there, and ResiClub expects home prices there to rise this year.

Charlotte County, FL is a weak housing market this year. Homebuyers have gained a lot of power there, and ResiClub expects home prices to fall this year in that market.