U.S. housing market falls short: 18 million fewer people than projected by Census in 2008

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Earlier this month, housing analyst Aziz Sunderji, who previously spent 14 years working at Barclays Investment Bank, published a research article finding that one of the greatest tailwinds in the U.S. housing market over the past eight decades is waning: U.S. population growth.

These findings stuck out to ResiClub:

• U.S. population growth is decelerating faster than expected.

• Back in 2008, the U.S. Census Bureau projected the total U.S. population to rise to 351 million by 2022. In 2012, the Census Bureau revised this projection to 341 million for 2022. By 2017, the projection was further adjusted to 340 million. The actual population in 2022 was 333 million, meaning the U.S. housing market has 18 million fewer people than expected back in 2008.

• The U.S. Census Bureau has done a better job estimating migration; however, it has significantly underestimated the decline in U.S. fertility rates—which, according to Sunderji, accounts for three-quarters of the forecast downgrades.

• By 2038, the U.S. Census Bureau expects U.S. deaths to start exceeding native births. Population growth between 2038 and 2080 is expected to come via migration.

• By 2081, the U.S. Census Bureau expects the U.S. total population to begin declining.

The most captivating part of the article was the data in the visualization below. It shows the last four versions of the Census Bureau’s long-term population outlook, which keep getting revised downward.

Click here to view an interactive version of the chart below

In 2008, the U.S. Census Bureau forecasted the U.S. population to reach 439 million in 2050.

In 2012, the U.S. Census Bureau forecasted the U.S. population to reach 400 million in 2050.

In 2017, the U.S. Census Bureau forecasted the U.S. population to reach 389 million in 2050.

In 2023, the U.S. Census Bureau forecasted the U.S. population to reach 361 million in 2050.

Quite a series of downward revisions.

“It’s hard to overstate the magnitude of this change: after all, the story [of rising population] has been the same throughout the careers of everyone working [in the housing sector] today. But the story is changing, surely if slowly, and with this shift, a new set of questions arise,” wrote Sunderji.

Final thought…

Last year, I tweeted that decelerated population growth/falling birth rates is “the biggest long-term economic story in America. It’ll be felt in many ways, for a very long long time.”

This article by Sunderji suggests that not only is that the case, but it’s coming a little sooner than expected.