‘We’re keeping an eye on Florida’ says one of the housing market’s largest homebuilders

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During their earnings call this week, Toll Brothers CEO Douglas Yearley was asked by analysts where the giant luxury homebuilder—whose average home price in its backlog is $1,078,700—is seeing regional housing market strength and where it is observing weakness.

Nationally, Yearley said the publicly-traded homebuilder, which is ranked No. 394 on the Fortune 500, is experiencing “broad-based strength around the country,” particularly in Northeast housing markets like Boston and Washington, D.C. In the fourth quarter ending October 31, the homebuilder sold 2,658 homes, up 30% from the 2,038 homes signed under contract during the same quarter last year.

When it comes to softness and weakness, Yearley pointed to Austin, San Antonio, Phoenix, and most of Florida.

“There is still some softness in Austin that is driven by affordability because Austin prices ran and ran and ran through COVID.” Yearley said. “And so there’s a bit more affordability pressure there with the higher prices. And then San Antonio, which is a very small market for us, has also been a bit softer. Out West, all good, the only market that we have a little bit of caution on is Phoenix, where inventories are up a little bit… And then the one I am saving for last is Florida. The good news in Florida is [that] Jacksonville has been very strong, but the other markets in Florida have seen some elevated inventory levels.”

All of those weaker housing markets have seen active housing inventory for sale—something ResiClub PRO members receive monthly updates on for every U.S. county and metro—climb back above pre-pandemic 2019 levels.

Click here to view an interactive version of the map below

Will these weaker housing markets see additional weakening in 2025?

“We're keeping an eye on Florida. The winter season is just beginning as the snowbirds are arriving, but that's probably our most cautionary market in the country,” Yearley said.

For homebuyers in Austin, San Antonio, and Florida, this shift means they’ve gained leverage in negotiations—especially compared to the boom times during the pandemic.

“I am beginning to see buyers have far more negotiating power than we have seen since the pre-Covid period," Joseph Nichols, broker and owner of Ruulio Mortgage in Fort Lauderdale, tells ResiClub. "These inventory levels have significantly improved the buyers ability to negotiate on purchase price and seller concessions; all the while simply giving them more initial options to pick from." Many are happy about the change, he says. "This is a far cry from the past few years and a change, I believe, everyone in Florida real estate is happy to see," he notes. "We shouldn’t forget sellers are buyers, and they are often just buying another Florida residence. Well, everyone is happy other than home builders who live and die by the purchase price of their new builds. We will see how net migration into Florida is in 2025 and whether this current inventory level will hold up.”

Over the past week ResiClub PRO members got these 3 additional research articles:

Update: Housing market inventory dynamics in 800+ metros and 3,000+ counties

Homebuilders have more completed unsold inventory than any time since 2009—what it means for the 2025 housing market

County map: The housing markets with the oldest—and youngest—housing stock

Companies interested in ResiClub advertising opportunities, bulk ResiClub PRO memberships for their entire team, or co-branded surveys and research with us should email: [email protected].

Bank of America makes its 2025 housing market call

Back in June, analysts at Bank of America forecasted that U.S. home prices, as measured by the Case-Shiller National Home Price Index, would rise +4.7% in 2025.

At the end of last week, analysts on Bank of America’s mortgage-backed securities team told ResiClub they’ve revised that down and are now expecting U.S. home prices to rise +2.0% in calendar year 2025.

“Positive [national] home price growth for next year is expected largely due to light supply of homes, keeping [national] prices elevated,” Jeana Curro, head of MBS research at Bank of America, told ResiClub. “Although we note inventories [of homes for sale] are gradually building, which is contributing to the slower pace of appreciation.”

Curro added that: “There are some regions where inventory is increasing—either via new construction, availability of affordable rentals, or homeowners motivated to sell due to surging taxes and insurance costs… Austin, Texas, and Tampa, Florida, are examples of markets seeing an uptick in inventory.”

Among the 16 forecasts in ResiClub PRO’s preliminary roundup, the average prediction is a +3.5% increase in U.S. home prices in 2025. We’ll publish our final roundup later this month for ResiClub PRO members.